The European Union – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) was ratified by the European Parliament on 12 February, 2020 in a vote in the European Parliament. Vietnam is the second largest trading partner of the EU in ASEAN, and is also the second ASEAN country to have concluded a free trade agreement with the EU (both after Singapore) after the failure of ASEAN to negotiate a bloc-wide agreement. The EVFTA was signed after three and a half years of negotiation in December 2015, and is touted as the “most modern and ambitious agreement ever concluded between the EU and a developing country”. The conclusion of this agreement is yet another major milestone for Vietnam, which already has a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Union and is a member of the CPTPP despite having been largely economically and diplomatically isolated as recently as the 1990s.
Because I am a huge nerd, right after the vote, I found the data on who voted for and against the ratification of the free trade agreement on the EU Parliament website and divided them up by both the bloc and the country they represent (the bloc data was already included in the original document, while I generated the country variable from the EU Parliament’s MEP directory), and since we’re all stuck in quarantine anyway, I thought this would be a good time to write about it. As always, I must preface this all with the caveat that I most emphatically not an expert in either European politics or legislatures in general, so this is more a case of me playing with data and commenting on trends and changes that I observed.
The European Parliament consists of 705 members is organised into parliamentary groups, similar to parties in national parliaments. Each parliamentary group consists of MEPs (Members of the European Parliament) belonging to national parties from each individual member states that share a similar ideological outlook. As of February 2020 (9th European Parliament), the voting blocs include the following:
- European People’s Party (EPP): A centre-right grouping consisting mostly of Christian democrats, liberal-conservatives, and conservatives; examples of member parties include the Christian Democratic Union (Christlich Demokratische Union, Germany), Fine Gael (Ireland), the Fidesz (Hungary), and the People’s Party (Partido Popular, Spain).
- Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D): A centre-left grouping consisting mostly of social democrats; examples of member parties include the Socialist Party (Parti socialiste, France), the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, Italy), the Spanish Socialist Worker’s Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, Spain), and the Labour Party (Partij van der Arbeid, Netherlands).
- Renew Europe (Renew): a liberal, centrist, pro-European grouping; examples of member parties include the Republic on the Move (La République en Marche.(France), Citizens (Ciudadanos, Spain), the Free Democratic Party (Freie Demokratisch Partei, Germany), and Venstre (Denmark).
- Greens-European Free Alliance (Verts/ALE): a grouping consisting of green and regionalist parties; examples of member parties include Alliance ’90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Germany), Ecolo (Belgium), and the Czech Pirate Party (Česká pirátská strana, Czechia), and the Latvian Russian Union (Latvijas Krievu savienība, Latvia).
- Identity and Democracy (ID): a grouping consisting of nationalist, Eurosceptic, and populist parties, often described as far-right in orientation; examples of member parties include the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, Germany), the League (Lega, Italy), National Rally (Rassemblement national, France), and the Flemish Interest (Vlaams Belang, Belgium).
- European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR): a grouping of centre-right, Eurosceptic, anti-federalist parties (prior to Brexit, the UK Conservative party was in this grouping); examples of member parties include Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, Poland), Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna, Sweden), Freedom and Solidarity (Sloboda a Solidarita, Slovakia), and IMRO – Bulgarian National Movement (ВМРО – Българско Национално Движение, Bulgaria).
- European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL): a grouping of socialist and communist parties, ranging from left-wing to far-left; examples of member parties include Syriza (Greece), La France Insoumise (France), The Left (Die Linke, Germany), Progressive Party of Working People (Ανορθωτικό Κόμμα Εργαζόμενου Λαού, Cyprus), and Podemos (Spain).
- Non-Inscrits (NI): the remaining MEPs who are unaffiliated with any grouping; examples of member parties include the Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle, Italy), the Communist Party of Greece (Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας, Greece), Jobbik (Hungary), and Human Shield (Živi zid, Croatia), along with independents.
In the current European Parliament (9th European Parliament), the groupings have the following shares of seats:
From left to right: GUE/NGL (39), S&D (147), Verts/ALE (67), Renew (98), EPP (187), ECR (61), GUE/NGL (39), NI (29).
While I am not familiar with a lot of the rules or protocol of the European Parliament (or parliaments in general – legislatures are not my research focus), those who are curious about EU parliamentary procedure and vote breakdowns can peruse the EU Parliament’s website (all votes can be found at https://www.europarl.europa.eu/plenary/en/home.html, but do note that the notation does take a little bit of getting used to). The overall breakdown of the ratification of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement was as follows:
The website also helpfully provided a list of who voted for and against, but did not list the country that the MEP represented, so I cross-referenced the names with the European Parliament’s Directory. The percent for was calculated as the number of for votes as a percent of the total that voted (i.e. excluding abstentions).
|COUNTRY||FOR||AGAINST||ABSTAIN||TOTAL VOTE||PERCENT FOR|
Remarkably, out of the twenty-seven countries of the EU, the MEPs from twenty-four countries voted for ratification, with only Finland, France, and Italy voting against, and the margin of vote from French MEPs being substantially larger than that of Italian or Finnish MEPs. While conventional wisdom would expect old colonial ties, the existence of a large Vietnamese diaspora (the largest in Europe) in France, and strong trade ties to push for French enthusiasm for this free trade agreement, this discrepancy may be explained by the fact that the French MEPs are disproportionately dominated by the far-right populist National Rally, which is staunchly anti-free trade (Italian MEPs are similarly dominated by the far-right League). Statistically, France is the third largest European destination for Vietnamese exports (behind Germany and the Netherlands), although it is the second largest European origin of exports to Vietnam (also behind Germany); in turn, Vietnam is the fifth largest Asian origin of exports to France, behind China, Japan, Turkey, and India. Comparatively, Vietnam is the fifth largest Asian origin of exports to Germany, behind China, Japan, Turkey, and South Korea). Interestingly, Vietnam is the second largest Asian origin of imports to Slovakia, just behind China.
Among the countries that voted for, the strongest support appeared to be from Central and Eastern Europe along with other newer members of the EU, with the strongest for votes recorded from Estonia, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Malta, Cyprus, Poland, and Hungary. On the other hand, the most marginal votes were from Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Germany, and Greece. This difference may be explained by the remaining ties that the Vietnamese state has with the old Eastern Bloc as well as the overall pro-free market stance of Central and Eastern Europe along with Western European posturing on human rights. That said, these voting patterns can also be interpreted as counter-intuitive, as Vietnam’s main exports to Europe will compete in lower-wage sectors and has the potential to hurt members with lower average wages; however, this is not borne out by the voting results even beyond the new members, as MEPs from 11 out of the 12 countries with the lowest nominal GDP per capita all voted strongly for the agreement (with the exception of Greece).
The voting blocs appear to be consistent with expectations. Both the centre-right blocs (EPP and ECR) voting strongly for the agreement, showing that differences on European integration do not necessarily extend to trading beyond the bloc; however, it should be noted that the ECR vote was also split by country, with five of the eight No votes from the MEPs from the Brothers of Italy party (Fratelli d’Italia) (the rest came from the lone MEP from the Bulgarian National Movement, one of the two Spanish MEPs from Vox, and a lone dissenter from Poland’s Law and Justice Party). Given that Renew is a liberal grouping, it is also not surprising that the group voted overwhelmingly for the agreement. On the left, opposition to the agreement generally stems from environmental concerns of free trade (hence the negative vote from the Verts/ALE, with a lone holdout from one of the two MEPs from the Socialist People’s Party of Denmark) or the impact on domestic labour (explaining the unanimous negative vote from GUE/NGL). The views from the centre-left also reflect these concerns, as reflected by the somewhat split vote of the S&D bloc, with S&D MEPs from France, Austria, Belgium, and Netherlands voting overwhelmingly against, the rest overwhelmingly for, and German S&D MEPs split down the middle. However, while these views are consistent with the political orientation of the blocs, Vietnam’s status as a Communist State complicates these considerations, as historically, it could count on the support and solidarity of left-wing parties in Europe; after all, Ho Chi Minh himself was a founding member of the French Communist Party. Nevertheless, these results show two important considerations. First, the votes seem to reflect domestic politics more than international relations, which is not atypical of legislative action. Second, with the waning importance of ideological divides since the end of the Cold War, it would appear Vietnam is first and foremost a trading partner, and the country’s political alignment is secondary.
While the ID group’s overall voting against the free trade agreement seems to be consistent with the group’s general orientation as being Eurosceptic and anti-globalisation and immigration, the vote was not unanimous. Notably, two-thirds (6 out of 9) of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) voted for the free trade agreement, along with the entire three-member delegation from the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ). In addition, the sole members of the Danish People’s Party (DF), the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), and the Freedom and Direct Democracy Party of Czechia (SPD) also voted for the agreement. This meant that they diverged the other right-wing populist movements around Europe, who appear to be uniformly staunchly protectionist on this issue. This vote is also a useful reminder that while these parties are often grouped together as part of a broad European right-wing populist surge due to significant overlap and cooperation, they do differ considerably on some issues. Populism overall is also not a good indicator of voting patterns on ratification – the entire delegation from the Italian Five Star Movement (M5S), which falls under the NI group, voted for the agreement.
These are some very rough and non-expert impressions that I had of the ratification process. Overall, to me, the EVFTA vote is emblematic of the changing position of Vietnam in the global economy. From a country that was still under a US embargo until 1995, Vietnam has become an open trading country, with trade reaching up to 200% of GDP in recent years. The transformation is apparent both within Vietnam and around the world – as a child, I remember seeing very few imports available, and my exposure to many imported goods was through luggage brought in by friends and family who lived abroad. From the other side, when I first moved abroad, Vietnamese goods were very uncommon. Now, Vietnam is flooded with consumer goods from around the world, and Vietnamese goods from numerous sectors are ubiquitous in many markets (I even found Vietnamese instant noodles in a supermarket in Brazil). Vietnam’s global position has changed significantly, and in a way, the EVFTA shows that this also changes the way the country interacts with domestic actors around the world.